Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 0.132547 0.156209 0.183861 0.218816 0.262179 0.314672 3.837381e-01
2025-07-20 0.106584 0.136615 0.175573 0.230765 0.308513 0.416591 5.827128e-01
2025-07-27 0.088643 0.122128 0.169733 0.244555 0.363469 0.553120 8.963332e-01
2025-08-03 0.073762 0.108284 0.161547 0.253704 0.418198 0.719467 1.368424e+00
2025-08-10 0.060187 0.093250 0.148001 0.251204 0.456273 0.885573 1.991243e+00
2025-08-17 0.048703 0.078981 0.132257 0.240561 0.477889 1.042123 2.783020e+00
2025-08-24 0.041782 0.070924 0.125452 0.245372 0.537320 1.338053 4.406990e+00
2025-08-31 0.036176 0.064010 0.119125 0.249689 0.601988 1.720544 7.167936e+00
2025-09-07 0.031774 0.058434 0.114122 0.255865 0.679712 2.248541 1.228871e+01
2025-09-14 0.028123 0.053587 0.109479 0.261796 0.765639 2.950770 2.202376e+01
2025-09-21 0.024471 0.047994 0.101779 0.257015 0.817485 3.625247 3.711502e+01
2025-09-28 0.019977 0.039764 0.085968 0.223395 0.743328 3.564722 4.415450e+01
2025-10-05 0.017837 0.036547 0.082086 0.225932 0.824866 4.678313 9.078518e+01
2025-10-12 0.016346 0.034535 0.080821 0.236973 0.961571 6.681137 2.445746e+02
2025-10-19 0.015090 0.032841 0.080019 0.249998 1.132347 9.867322 8.627178e+02
2025-10-26 0.013831 0.030897 0.078043 0.258349 1.298300 14.237915 3.938158e+03
2025-11-02 0.012429 0.028326 0.073573 0.254942 1.394395 18.681586 2.044980e+04
2025-11-09 0.011037 0.025542 0.067786 0.243442 1.425129 22.630435 1.333681e+05
2025-11-16 0.010176 0.024036 0.065680 0.247763 1.596435 32.730738 4.157378e+07
2025-11-23 0.009407 0.022653 0.063633 0.251659 1.783389 48.078095 NaN
2025-11-30 0.008759 0.021495 0.062065 0.257493 2.015386 74.142255 NaN
2025-12-07 0.008176 0.020428 0.060550 0.263130 2.274545 117.594272 NaN
2025-12-14 0.007509 0.019002 0.057401 0.258046 2.403432 164.146243 NaN